BTC Today: The Drop Below $90,000

The date is November 18th, and the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Bitcoin has plunged below the landmark $90,000 level, wiping out all of its year-to-date gains. The drop from recent peaks is now around 27%. This isn't just a correction. This is a critical moment that will define the entire market's next move.

Right now, as panic floods the chats and news feeds are bleeding red, the foundations for future great victories or crushing defeats are being laid. Let's break down what's really happening, without emotion, and figure out how to act in this storm.

The Verdict from the Charts: The Technical Picture

The technical analysis is currently ruthless: sellers are firmly in control.

• The Trend Is Broken: For the first time in months, a clear downtrend has formed on the daily chart. The bullish structure has been violated.
• Indicators Are Screaming "Sell!":
  • Parabolic SAR on the daily chart signals a continued downtrend.
  • Moving Averages (MA) across all key timeframes (4H, 1D, 1W) confirm the strength of the downward pressure.
  • The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at around 34. This is close to the oversold zone, which might offer a glimmer of hope for a short-term bounce, but the RSI alone is not a reliable indicator for a trend reversal.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: The nearest wall of sellers is in the $104,700 - $109,700 range. Any attempt at a rally is likely to be shut down in this zone.
• Support: The $90,000 level is the last line of defense. If it fails to hold, the next stop is $84,000 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

The Drivers of the Drop: Fundamental Factors

The market is being pressured not just by sellers on the charts, but by the global economic environment.

1. A Macroeconomic Cold Shower: Traders are reassessing their expectations for a December interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A more hawkish stance from the Fed is causing investors to flee from risk assets, and crypto is first on the chopping block.
2. The Domino Effect from the Stock Market: The overheated tech sector, especially stocks like Nvidia, is seeing profit-taking from large funds. That money is leaving the market, creating additional pressure on cryptocurrencies.
3. Institutions Are Losing Confidence: Even the launch of a new spot XRP ETF couldn't turn the market around. Capital flows into crypto ETFs have become chaotic: some funds are seeing inflows, while others are experiencing significant outflows. This indicates a lack of consensus among "big money."

Market Sentiment: Fear, Panic, and Hedging

What is "smart money" doing while everyone else is scared? They're not panicking; they're hedging.

• The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 24 — the "extreme fear" zone.
• The Options Market: There's a sharp spike in demand for protective "puts" with strike prices at $85,000 and even $80,000. Big players aren't expecting a rally; they are actively insuring themselves against a further drop.
• A Shift in Narrative: Traders on prediction markets (like Polymarket) no longer see this as a routine correction. The narrative has shifted to expecting a deeper, more prolonged decline.

While headlines scream panic, professional analysis focuses on liquidity and order flow. It's the understanding of where stop-loss clusters are, how market makers manage the order book in volatile conditions, and what distinguishes a systematic approach. The mission of Coinrate is to make these professional tools, such as liquidity analysis and market-making strategies, accessible and understandable for the retail trader, so you can see the opportunities behind the panic.

The Dynamics of the Drop in Numbers (as of 11/18/2025):

• Daily: -5.3%
• Weekly: -9.7% (from ~$99,700)
• Monthly: -18.6% (from ~$110,500)
• Year-to-Date: -3.7% (the price has dropped below the January 18th level)

Conclusion and Strategy

The situation is critical. Technical and fundamental factors have united against the "bulls." The probability of a further decline to the $84,000 level currently looks much higher than the chance of a quick recovery to $100,000.

What to do in these conditions?

• For leveraged traders: Minimize your risks. In the current environment, any reckless trade can lead to liquidation.
• For spot investors: Don't try to "catch the bottom" with one large purchase. If you believe in an asset for the long term, use a "laddering" strategy—place limit orders at key support levels.
• For those in cash: You're in the strongest position right now. Don't rush. Wait for signs of stabilization: a slowing of the decline, a rise in buying volume.

The market is trapped in fear, and a trend reversal will require either a powerful positive macro catalyst or a full capitulation of sellers. It is in moments like these that the difference between emotional decisions and a data-driven, systematic approach becomes most apparent.

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